807
FXUS63 KARX 210544
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1244 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Primarily dry weather and cooler temperatures continue through
  Friday.

- Periodic showers and perhaps some storms are possible Friday
  night through Sunday, most favorable Friday night into
  Saturday morning (40-60%).

- Cool temperatures linger through the rest of the week before
  warming this weekend into next week. Above normal temperatures
  appear likely Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Today - Friday: Cool and Dry Weather Continues

Fairly benign weather continues today and Friday as surface high
pressure slowly meanders eastward under zonal upper level flow
lingering across the Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave ridge develops
this afternoon within this flow, which is expected to favor dry
conditions through Friday.

However, before this ridge develops, weak shortwave trough energy
reflected in the 700-500hPa layer traverses the zonal flow,
reinforcing cloudiness today. Some potential for light showers
exists late this morning into the afternoon as the wave propagates
through the Upper Midwest. However, cloud bases sit around 10kft
through the day while dry air dominates the sub-cloud layer which
may prove challenging for the weak synoptic scale forcing to
overcome. As such, the 20.18z REFS suggests probabilities for
measurable precipitation sits at 

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion