327
FXUS63 KARX 021141
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
641 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sleet will change over to freezing rain overnight and continue
  into Thursday morning. The greatest icing will be Clark,
  Jackson, and Taylor counties where anywhere from 3 tenths to a
  half inch of ice may accumulate.

- There will be a potential of severe weather in southwest
  Wisconsin and adjacent northeast Iowa this afternoon. This
  will be associated with a few discreet supercells along a cold
  front. The main severe weather threats will be large hail,
  damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. If they were to occur,
  it would be between 2 pm and 8 pm

- There will be another possibility for severe storms on Friday
  night. If they occur, the main threat will be large hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Overnight

During the evening, there was trend upward in the dew points west of
the Mississippi River. They climbed into the mid-30s. There was some
thoughts that the freezing rain threat might shift north, but as the
precipitation rates declined, the dew points once again dropped
below freezing.

Through the night north of Interstate 94, the warm nose will
gradually warm and grow in depth. As this occurs, the sleet will
gradually transition to freezing rain. Additional icing amounts
will likely range from a tenth to around a quarter inch in
Clark, Jackson, and Taylor counties.

Further south between the Interstate 90 and 94 corridors, the
freezing rain is expected to continue through much of the night.
Like further north, the warm nose is expected to warm and grow in
depth overnight. As precipitation continues to fall into the
shrinking cold pool near the surface, the surface temperatures will
gradually warm and the freezing rain threat will come to an end.
This will likely occur close to sunrise. Icing in these areas
overnight will likely see anywhere from a light glaze to a tenth of
an inch.

Elsewhere, rain is expected to continue with additional
rainfall totals of a quarter to a half-inch.

This Morning

Along and north of Interstate 94, the warm nose will gradually grow
in depth and magnitude. As this occurs, the freezing rain will
transition to rain. As infrared radiation from the sun (even through
the thick clouds) increases during the day, any additional
icing will be more on elevated surfaces. Additional icing will
likely range from a tenth to a quarter inch. These totals are
higher than what they looked like they would be yesterday.

Like yesterday, there does not look to be much additional icing
between Interstates 90 and 94 as either the freezing rain threat
would have ended or will end shortly after dawn as warm air aloft is
brought down from aloft by the rain.

This Afternoon and Evening

As the surface low moves northeast out of the Missouri into the
Upper Mississippi River Valley, there should be some air mass
recovery in the wake of the morning convection. There continues to
be plenty of uncertainty on how much recovery there will be and how
much of the area will be possibly impacted. At this time, it looks
like it would be just southwest Wisconsin and the adjacent portions
of northeast Iowa. There appears to be just enough shear (45 knots)
and CAPES (up to 1000 J/kg) for a few discrete supercells along the
cold front. This might result in large hail, damaging winds, and
maybe an isolated tornado. If severe weather occurs, it would
between 2 PM and 8 PM.

Friday Night

Another low pressure system will track across across the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. This is a very similar track to the one
this afternoon, but it doesn`t move into the area until night. With
less instability, the severe weather threat looks to remain mainly
south of the area. If it did occur, the main threat would be large
hail from elevated storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Ongoing aviation impacts expected through the 02.12Z TAF period.
Freezing rain impacts are pushing north through the morning
hours with lighter rain perpetuating MVFR-IFR ceilings.

Line of subsequent storms progress east-northeast through the
early afternoon hours. Heaviest rain and most intense storms expected
along southern half of the forecast area. Lowest impacts
tonight after storms will be forecast challenge in coming TAFs
as LIFR ceilings looks possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Overall rain totals for the first system range from a 0.5 inches
to 1.5 inches. Some locations could see slightly higher totals
given the convective nature of the rain later in the day on
Thursday. Given the antecedent dry conditions, basins should be
able to handle this first batch without too much cause for
concern. Rises are expected with some of the flashier basins
potentially going into action stage before this first round.
Unless we significantly over-achieve on totals, this first round
should be a healthy rainfall.

In the wake of the first system, additional rainfall amounts of 0.5
to 1.25", localized amounts up to 2 inches, will increase the risk
of flooding on some area rivers. While confidence in any flooding is
low, confidence for how river rises will manifest will increase
further after the rainfall from the system tonight and into Thursday
occurs.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for
     WIZ032-033-041>044-053-055.
     Ice Storm Warning until noon CDT today for WIZ017-029.
     Ice Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ034.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for
     MNZ079-086>088-095-096.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...JAR
HYDROLOGY...Barendse/Naylor

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion